Method
Every CRI analysis follows the same method, so readers can see how a judgement was reached and how much weight it can bear.
Structured analytic techniques
Each analysis names the techniques it uses. The most common are these.
- Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). Several explanations are tested against the same evidence. The emphasis lies on evidence that contradicts a hypothesis, since evidence that fits every explanation proves little.
- Key Assumptions Check. The assumptions behind a judgement are listed and tested, so that a conclusion does not rest on something taken for granted.
- Indicators. Observable signs are defined in advance that would show a situation moving in one direction or another.
Explicit probability
Words such as “likely” mean different things to different readers. CRI therefore uses a fixed scale. When an analysis says an outcome is likely, it means a probability of 55 to 75 per cent, and the same word always carries the same meaning.
The probability scale
CRI uses the probability yardstick of the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment. The gaps between ranges are deliberate and avoid false precision at the boundaries.
Confidence
Probability and confidence are kept apart. Probability states how likely an outcome is. Confidence states how solid the basis for that judgement is. CRI uses three levels.
- High. Good quality information from several independent sources.
- Moderate. Credible information, but with gaps or with sources that cannot be fully corroborated.
- Low. Fragmentary or doubtful information, or a judgement that rests heavily on assumptions.
Modelling
Where a question involves several uncertain factors, CRI uses Monte Carlo simulation. The model runs thousands of times with values drawn from defined ranges. The result shows the spread of possible outcomes rather than a single forecast. The assumptions and ranges are published with each model.
Sources
CRI uses open sources only. Each source is assessed for reliability and each piece of information for credibility, following the grading used in NATO intelligence practice. Every analysis lists its sources at the end.