Independent analysis
Security risk in the Baltic Sea region, assessed with structured methods.
Independent analysis of Russian activity, critical infrastructure and Nordic and Baltic defence, with explicit probabilities and open sources.
Latest analysis
The first analyses are in preparation.
Method
How CRI worksStructured techniques
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, Key Assumptions Check and Indicators. Every analysis states which techniques were used.
Explicit probability
Judgements use a fixed probability scale, so "likely" always means the same thing.
Modelling
Monte Carlo simulation explores the range of possible outcomes rather than a single forecast.
The probability scale
CRI uses the probability yardstick of the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment. The gaps between ranges are deliberate and avoid false precision at the boundaries.
Focus areas
Russia and hybrid threats
Influence operations, intelligence activity and pressure below the threshold of armed conflict.
Baltic Sea and critical infrastructure
Undersea cables and pipelines, energy, and incidents where attribution is uncertain.
Nordic and Baltic defence
Force posture, deterrence and decision-making under time pressure.
Newsletter
The Threshold
A fortnightly brief on Baltic Sea security risk. Key judgements, indicators to watch and one chart, in five minutes.
Subscriptions open shortly. Until then, write to contact@counterriskinsights.dk to be added to the first issue.
About
Counter Risk Insights is an independent analysis practice focused on security risk in the Baltic Sea region. Every judgement carries an explicit probability, every analysis names its method, and every source is listed. CRI was founded by Viktor Anker Bendsen, who holds an MSc in Geopolitical Studies from Charles University in Prague.
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